12-18-18

Corn

A fraction better overnight trade in light volume. News is light as market awaits word about China purchases. Crop consultant Cordonieer leaves his Brazil corn prod estimate at 96mmt, Argy at 41mmt. Large spec and managed money funds remain long..managed $ is estimated around 100,000 contracts.

Trading steady/fraction better

 

Soybeans

Biggest news is Pres Trump tweets that the 2nd subsidy payment is coming, also chatter that China may have bought another round of 1-2mmt of US soybeans. The fact still remains that the projected US carryout is 955mb, it appears we may be on verge of losing China market share if prices stay at these levels. Crop scout Cordonieer leaves his Brazil prod est at 122mmt with a neutral bias, seeing on twitter that a “flash” drought has already caused 5-10mmt loss in Brazil.

Trading 3-5 better

 

Wheat

Futures continue to chop around with friendly chart technical and market waits for Russia AgMin meeting with exporters on Friday. U.S. still has a large supply/carryout, but overall US exports remain behind the needed pace. Continue to hear debate of U.S. planted winter wheat acres, down on year or just below expected? Will wet fall conditions lead to poor stands and winter kill susceptibility? Will soy basis in ND lead to less soybean acres and more spring wheat acres?

Trading 2 to 4 lower